Mauao Landslide

TCC commissioned a 61-page Natural Hazard Risk Assessment in December 2023 that explicitly recommended (1) relocating cabins from the runout zone and (2) developing a TARP evacuation plan. Neither recommendation was implemented in the 25 months before the disaster.

Source: WSP NZ — Natural Hazard Risk Assessment (Dec 2023)

The July 2025 WSP study used Mauao as its primary case study for slope instability, yet the campground area was excluded from the official hazard map.

Source: WSP NZ — Tauranga Landslide Susceptibility Study (Jul 2025)

Safety buffer zones reduced from 4H:1V to 2H:1V — halving the safety margin — six months before the fatal landslide.

Source: TCC Engineering Records (Jul 2025)

From 1999 to 2026, over 40 geotechnical reports documented landslide and rockfall risk at the campground. TCC continued operating the facility without implementing protective measures.

Source: TCC Mauao Landslide Portal — Natural Hazard Records (1999–2026)

The 2005 Zone 6 assessment explicitly identified the campground as being in a landslide runout zone and advised against locating buildings there. TCC continued to operate and upgrade the campground for 21 years after this assessment.

Source: Zone 6 Rockfall Hazard Assessment (2005) & TCC development records

On the morning of 22 January 2026, TCC's emergency response office was unmanned during a one-in-100-year rainfall event. This was the office responsible for issuing evacuation orders and coordinating emergency response.

Source: RNZ — Investigation into emergency response failures

At 8:02am on 22 January, TCC closed the walking tracks on Mauao due to hazardous conditions. However, the campground — at greatest risk from landslides — remained open. The collapse occurred at 9:30am, 88 minutes later.

Source: Timeline of events — Morning of 22 January 2026

Between 5:47am and 9:30am, four separate warnings were issued: visible slips, flowing water, track closure, and escalating rainfall. No evacuation was ordered despite these clear warning signs.

Source: Police & Civil Defence records — Morning of 22 January 2026

A Civil Defence alert issued on the morning of the disaster mentioned flooding and wind warnings but did not mention landslide risk — despite the area being in a documented runout zone.

Source: Waikato Times — Civil Defence alert analysis

Drainage systems and slope stabilization infrastructure had not been upgraded or properly maintained in accordance with recommendations from multiple geotechnical reports.

Source: TCC maintenance records & geotechnical reports

The December 2023 WSP report recommending cabin relocation was not widely publicized or acted upon. It appears to have been filed without triggering operational changes.

Source: TCC governance records & media investigation

Historical records show a significant slip occurred in the same location in 1977, indicating a pattern of instability in this specific area.

Source: TCC historical hazard register

The December 2025 update but released just six weeks before the disaster.

Source: Stratum — Geotechnical Assessment, Dec 2025

Mauao was used as the primary case study in the July 2025 landslide susceptibility study, yet the campground was excluded from the final hazard map. This created a dangerous gap between scientific knowledge and public information.

Source: WSP NZ — Tauranga Landslide Susceptibility Study (Jul 2025)